The European Banking Authority (EBA) has published its Guidelines on Environmental Scenario Analysis.
Many in my network working in the banking sector are already familiar with these developments, but their implications for other industries are far less widely recognised. Although addressed to banks and investment firms, these guidelines may have implications beyond the financial sector. As the EBA notes, ”climate and other environmental risks, such as extreme weather events, ecosystem degradation, and growing pressures on land and water resource, pose considerable challenges for the economy”. These risks are already driving economic transitions that affect financial institutions and the companies they finance.
The guidelines outline expectations for how credit institutions and investment firms should assess their resilience to environmental risks, primarily climate-related physical and transition risks, through scenario analysis. Scenario analysis evaluates how different plausible futures might affect an institution’s strategy, operations, and risk exposure. It can be a straightforward “what if” exercise or a more advanced analysis backed by data, models, and narrative pathways. In all cases, it is designed to help organisations anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness, and identify emerging opportunities.
Environmental risks are becoming more material and can influence every financial-risk category. By setting common EU-wide expectations, the EBA aims to improve how these risks are recognised, assessed, and integrated. Although the guidelines are directed at banks, they may also influence the expectations placed on companies that rely on external financing, including how they assess environmental risks and the resilience of their business models.
Being proactive now helps companies stay ahead of evolving requirements, supervisory expectations, and market pressures. Conducting environmental scenario analysis can support access to capital, strengthen strategic planning, and offer a competitive edge as the transition to a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy accelerates.
It is important not to underestimate the potential economic and business impacts of climate change and nature loss.
#biodiversity #climate #scenario #eba #banking #esgrisk #climaterisk #adaptation
Kaarina Saramäki 